You recognize the terrain in Figure 1, don't you?  This is the extreme right flank of the French advance on Quatre Bras.  There are no other French units to the right of these units.  This is the 3:00 PM game turn, so the advance is going pretty well, with Piramont (worth 50 victory points) already captured.  The French have deployed the 1 Brigade, 5 Infantry Division and the 1 Brigade, 5 Cavalry Division.and are poised to confront a British Brigade just north of the Etang Materne.  The two French units outlined in white are disordered.  The other two infantry battalions are each at 0 fatigue and 500 SP.  The 100 SP skirmisher in the Bois Charris chateaux is the sole remaining unit in the area.  The two large stacks of Allied skirmishers just north of the lake are the 95th Rifles.

The French have made their move, electing to confront the Allied across the river and advance forward as far as possible.  On first analysis, the French position seems strong enough.  As can been seen by the black line in Figure 2, there is an unbroken zone of control from the lake all the way to the hedge.  However, note the skirmisher in the center of the French line.  If this skirmisher was removed, much of the French line could be surrounded and captured in the next Allied Melee Phase due to no available avenues of retreat.

Even though it is an unlikely occurence, unfortunately for the French the 50 SP skirmisher was destroyed during the previous Allied Defensive Fire Phase, and as can be seen in Figure 3 the French units have been surrounded and were all captured in the next Melee Phase.  Worse, a second British Brigade arrived from the road north of the top most French skirmisher and assisted in completing the encirclement. 

How was the 50 SP skirmisher destroyed?  In Figure 4, the location of 8 Allied units in Figure 2 available to fire at the central French skirmisher is indicated by the black dots.  Five of the units available to fire are the 95th Rifles, which get a +1 modifer due to their quality 6 level, and have a range of 5 hexes.   One of the other units is a 500+ SP infantry battalion in line, while the other two units are 50-75 SP skirmishers.  Calculating the odds of attaining two or more 25 SP hits out of eight shots with these units gives 7.9 %.  This is a low probablity, and you have to decide whether you'd risk ~1000 men on a 1 out of 13 occurence.